The study is from early 2022 and is based on Ukrainian casualty numbers from only the very first month of the war. Their worst case scenario was this:
Our third and fourth scenarios assume that the war will continue for a month or longer so that further casualties and refugees are expected. We assume the following casualties: 5,000 deaths among soldiers and 1,500 civilian deaths based on the current trends. There will be 5 million refugees, which is an estimate by UNHCR (UNHCR 2022a)
The real refugee numbers are twice as high and the casualty numbers, wounded and dead, are of course about 100 times higher than the study assumed. It was thus not worth the money that had been spend on it.
Still, some graphs in it are usable.
Yesterday I shortly discussed the op-ed by the former British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace in which he asserts:
The average age of the soldiers at the front is over 40.
NBC News and the Associated Press on Tuesday reported glowingly on the news that right-wing writer and commentator Alain Soral was sentenced to prison in Switzerland for calling a journalist a "fat lesbian" two years ago on Facebook.
More than 1,600 leading scientists from around the world have signed a “World Climate Declaration” stating there is “no climate emergency.” Calling themselves the Global Climate Intelligence Group, scientists from around the world, including Nobel Laureate Professor John F. Clauser from the United States and Nobel Laureate Professor Ivar Giaever from Norway, signed onto a letter claiming there is no climate emergency in contrast to a narrative portrayed by popular mainstream media. Climatologists, meteorologists, geologists, engineers, and physicists from a wide range of Universities, private, public, and government entities, including NASA, the USDA, and the U.S. Navy, signed onto the document which can be read in its entirety here: There is No Climate Emergency.
“Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of their policy measures,” the letter said.
Newly declassified British files shed disturbing light on the origins and internal workings of Operation Gladio, a covert NATO plot deploying fascist terror militias across Italy. Have spies in London applied these lessons in Ukraine?
Newly declassified British Foreign Office files have added disturbing details to the history of Operation Gladio. The covert operation was uncovered in 1990, when the public learned that the CIA, MI6 and NATO trained and directed an underground army of fascist paramilitary units across Europe, deploying its assets to undermine political opponents, including through false flag terror attacks.
Among them was a young Silvio Berlusconi, the media oligarch who served as Italian Prime Minister in four separate governments between 1994 and 2011. Listed as a member of the P2, the secret Cold War-era cabal of political elites devoted to Gladio’s aims, Berlusconi undoubtedly took some weighty secrets to the grave when he died this June 12th.
New York socialists calling for higher taxes aim to spread the tax net far beyond Wall Street, scooping up folks on Main Street—especially in the suburbs.
Bemoaning “violent budget cuts” at New York City agencies, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her ideological allies are calling on the city and state to “fund resources for all New Yorkers” by raising taxes on the top 5% of New Yorkers. Considering the left’s prior focus on “the 1%,” this is a major development.
The top 1% of New Yorkers begins just south of $1 million in adjusted gross income. But the top 5% begins a little above $250,000—translating into married couples making $127,000 each.
The bankers have once again screwed the pooch financially, meaning another world war is soon on the way.
The trillions they have stolen from society via their money-printing press, the corrupt stock market, and "aid" to Ukraine means the economy system is once again on the verge of a collapse, which always mean war is soon to come as cover.
Both major political parties, "blue" and "red," have become pro-war because war is the pillar of American society. Without endless violence and bloodshed, all that "prosperity" would cease to exist.
"War is a racket," stated Smedley D. Butler back in 1935 after fighting in four major conflicts.
"It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives."
The problem today, though, is that Americans are tired of sending their children off to die for the bankers. This means the bankers through their political puppets could attempt to institute a draft.
Scores of Israeli settlers stormed Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque on Tuesday under police escort, the Palestinian Authority’s official Wafa news agency reported.
More than 200 settlers entered the compound and performed Jewish rituals in front of the Bab al-Qattanin gate, a source at the Islamic Endowments Department told The New Arab’s Arabic-language sister site Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. The settlers were led by far-right extremist rabbi Yehuda Glick.
Settlers also provocatively marched through Palestinian neighbourhoods near to the mosque.
Jewish extremists have increasingly tried to storm the mosque in recent months, performing provocative religious rites there in violation of a long-standing status quo, which while allowing non-Muslims to visit the site, only permits Muslim prayer there.
Israeli authorities prevented British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly from visiting a Palestinian village that was recently emptied of its residents after years of Israeli settler violence, Middle East Eye can reveal.
Cleverly had planned to visit the West Bank village of Ein Samiya during his three-day trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories in September, but multiple sources told MEE that Israeli authorities blocked the request, with Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt and Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin also prevented from travelling to the stricken village.
An Israeli foreign ministry spokesman told MEE on Tuesday that Israeli authorities "did not enable the British foreign minister to enter Ein Samiya, as well as the foreign minister of Norway and the foreign minister of Ireland."
He explained that "the decision was made in consultation with security figures and it was decided not to permit them to arrive at these points.
Food shortages, power cuts and a collapsing currency are upending daily life in Yemen as peace talks make no headway in restoring a ceasefire that lapsed one year ago, around 50 NGOs said late Monday.
"While economic challenges are rife across the country, rising inflation and the deterioration of public services are making life unbearable," said a statement signed by 35 Yemeni groups and 13 international aid organisations including the Danish Refugee Council and Save the Children.
That is especially true "for hundreds of thousands of families" in territory controlled by the internationally recognised government based in the main southern city of Aden, the statement said.
Power cuts in Aden can last 17 hours a day and more than 50 percent of households in government-held areas cannot meet basic food requirements because of skyrocketing prices, the statement said.
The Belarusian Defence Ministry said on Tuesday it had started exercises to check its armed forces' combat readiness.
"The troops will march as soon as possible to the designated areas, followed by the performance of normative standards on the subjects of combat training," the ministry said. It did not specify when the exercises would end.
The manoeuvres will take place in the Minsk and Vitebsk regions and will involve military hardware and aviation.
Military drills in Belarus, which allowed Russia to use its territory as a staging post for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, periodically raise security concerns in Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states.
Serbian police on Tuesday detained an ethnic Serb leader from Kosovo who was the alleged organizer behind a recent shootout with Kosovo police that left four people dead and sent tensions soaring in the region.
Police said they also searched the apartment and other property in Serbia belonging to Milan Radoicic, a politician and wealthy businessman with close ties to Serbia’s ruling populist party and President Aleksandar Vucic.
Police gave no other details. A statement said Radoicic was ordered to remain in custody for 48 hours.
Later on Tuesday, prosecutors said Radoicic was questioned under suspicion of a criminal conspiracy, unlawful possession of weapons and explosives and grave acts against public safety.
Europe should reduce its reliance on the U.S. and strengthen the European pillar of NATO instead, Czech President Petr Pavel said Tuesday.
“The dominant role of NATO as a security provider must no longer mean that Europe neglects its defense obligations,” said Pavel, speaking at the opening ceremony of the new academic year at the College of Europe in Bruges. “Reducing the reliance on the U.S. and developing European strategic enablers is to be seen as our contribution to our transatlantic partnership.
“Very likely, we will have to go beyond the 2 percent spending on defense,” he noted.
NATO allies agreed at the Vilnius summit in July that the target, in the words of Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, should be treated as a floor instead of a ceiling.
A military court sentenced a Congolese military colonel to death and convicted three soldiers following the deaths of more than 50 people who were protesting the U.N. peacekeeping mission earlier this year.
Col. Mike Mikombe, former commander of the Republican Guard in the eastern city of Goma, was sentenced Monday. Congo has not enforced the death penalty in more than 20 years, effectively making it a life sentence.
Three other second-class soldiers from the same unit were sentenced to 10 years in prison. Two other officers were acquitted, including Col. Donat Bawili, who headed the Congolese armed forces regiment in Goma at the time.
In August, Goma’s mayor had banned a protest organized by a sect known as Wazalendo. Its supporters planned to demonstrate against the regional East African Community organization and the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Congo.
Islamist militants in Mali began a blockade of Timbuktu by cutting road access in August and then shut off river and air routes in an offensive that has put the city once again on the frontline of a jihadist insurgency.
The bombing began soon after. On Sept. 21, witnesses said rockets hit a hospital, killing two children, and landed near a school where survivors of a passenger boat attack that killed more than 100 people were sheltering.
"Our worry is the shelling," businessman Sory Touré said in Timbuktu, which was occupied by jihadists a decade ago. "It creates a real psychosis and leaves a lasting impression. I have this fear within me."
Since the United Nations began winding down its peacekeeping mission in July, al Qaeda affiliated militants launched an offensive in central Mali, fighting has resumed between the army and Tuareg rebels from the north and, in the east, Islamic State-allied insurgents have continued to carry out attacks.
The Army wants as many as one-third of its future enlisted recruits to have college degrees and plans to create two new jobs — one enlisted, one warrant officer — to keep high-performing recruiters looking for them, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said Tuesday.
As the Army faces recruiting challenges, the service is also going through “a moment of transformation” with potential changes to the entire force structure and overall modernization, Wormuth said in a roundtable with reporters.
“There are a lot of things happening that are outside of the United States Army’s ability to control: the declining percentage of young Americans who are eligible to join the military, the declining propensity,” Wormuth said. “What we’ve really tried to focus on since this is an existential issue for us is, what can we change right now?”
The Pentagon’s 2024 budget calls for funding bumps for recruiting and advertising by hundreds of millions and calls for a DOD report on efforts to expand military eligibility “by eliminating unnecessary disqualifying standards and modifying the recruitment standards and waiver process.”
Webmaster addition: Why would anyone with a college degree want to join the Army?!?
India has told Canada to remove 41 of its 62 diplomats in the country, an official familiar with the matter said Tuesday, ramping up a confrontation between the two countries over Canadian accusations that India may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in suburban Vancouver.
The official, who confirmed an earlier report from the Financial Times, spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs declined to comment, but ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi had previously called for a reduction in Canadian diplomats in India, saying they outnumbered India’s staffing in Canada.
Pakistan on Tuesday ordered all illegal immigrants, including 1.73 million Afghan nationals, to leave the country or face expulsion after revealing that 14 of 24 suicide bombings in the country this year were carried out by Afghan nationals.
It was not immediately clear how Pakistani authorities could ensure the illegal immigrants leave, or how they could find them to expel them.
Islamabad's announcement marks a new low in its relations with Kabul that deteriorated after border clashes between the South Asian neighbours last month.
"We have given them a November 1 deadline," said Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti, adding that all illegal immigrants should leave voluntarily or face forcible expulsion after that date.
The president-elect of the Maldives said he will stick to his campaign promise to remove Indian military personnel stationed in the archipelago state, promising he would initiate the process.
Mohamed Muiz told his supporters gathered Monday night at a celebration of his election victory that he wouldn’t stand for a foreign military staying in the Maldives against the will of its citizens.
“The people have told us that they don’t want foreign military here,” he said.
It’s a serious blow to India in its geopolitical rivalry with China in the India Ocean region, where the Maldives’ presidential runoff election Saturday was seen as a virtual referendum on which of the regional powers would have the biggest influence on the archipelago. Outgoing President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who was elected president in 2018, was battling allegations by Muiz that he had allowed India an unchecked presence in the country. Muiz’s party, the People’s National Congress, is viewed as heavily pro-China.
The US Department of Defense has issued an unclassified paper incorporating critical approaches to mitigate weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
The strategic report outlines known WMD threats and offers “tailored” solutions with associated authorities, allies, and operations to counter them and recover from their effects.
Under the plan, the US will focus on specific priorities to guarantee the security of the homeland from such attacks, deter WMD use against the US and its partners, enhance the Joint Force to manage chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) environments, and prevent new WMD threats.
Egyptian state security forces detained dozens of young people in the early hours of Tuesday, 3 October, in Marsa Matrouh province who protested against the deteriorating decade-long socioeconomic conditions, hours after President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced his intention to run for a third term in forthcoming December elections.
"Demonstrations broke out in Alexandria street, the major commercial street in the northwestern capital city [also named Marsa Matrouh] against the rising prices and human rights abuses we have been surviving, following a concert of a popular singer," a local tribal source told The New Arab on condition of anonymity.
"Boxes of groceries and money gifts were distributed among the attendees after the concert, as tribal leaders and senior members of the two parties gave speeches in support of Sisi's nomination," the source added. "At that moment, and, in less than 10 minutes, many of the young attendees flew into a rage, shouting anti-regime slogans against the rising prices of basic commodities and repressive security measures taken against the locals for months now."
At least one in five children arriving in South Sudan from Sudan are malnourished and more than 90% of arrivals haven’t eaten in days, the U.N. food agency said Tuesday.
The World Food Program said that nearly 300,000 people have arrived in South Sudan in the last five months — the majority of whom are South Sudanese. South Sudan plunged into civil war in 2013, forcing thousands of its citizens to flee to neighboring countries, including Sudan.
“We are seeing families leave one disaster for another as they flee danger in Sudan only to find despair in South Sudan,” says Mary-Ellen McGroarty, WFP’s country director in South Sudan.
By now I sincerely hope that you have all been watching the exposure of the #PlasmidGate scandal unfold on twitter and various other platforms. If you haven’t I’m going to summarise it for you as briefly I can:
When Pfizer and Moderna said that they produced an “RNA vaccine” and that an “RNA vaccine” meant that anything they injected into you would have a short lived (days) effect at most, it was a lie.
When the media, the regulators and the government said it “isn’t gene therapy” without knowing what was actually in the product, that was also a lie.
The primary reason that this is now proven to be a lie is that multiple laboratories around the world have proven that those COVID vaccines contain therapeutic levels of plasmid DNA. DNA lasts for ever and if it integrates into your genome, you will produce its product forever. There is no definition of gene therapy anywhere in the world that this process would be excluded from.
For more details on #Plasmidgate outside of twitter I would refer you to the original substack from Kevin McKernan here and the whole testimony of Dr Phillip Buckhaults here.
Just for background, it’s important to know what plasmid DNA is – it’s the lab-based circular DNA particles that is replicated in big vats of poo and then used to create the mRNA that goes into your “short lived” vaccine.
It’s a lab tool so should never be in a drug injected into a human. It’s not allowed to be there. It’s like having a drug that requires arsenic as a substrate to make it, and then throwing the leftover arsenic into the actual drug that gets injected into you.
The Russian Investigative Committee has charged Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov and several other military commanders in absentia for authorizing drone attacks on Russian territory, placing all individuals’ names on the wanted list, the law enforcement agency’s press service told TASS.
"Criminal charges have been filed against the Head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate [GUR], Kirill Budanov; Ukrainian Air Force Commander Nikolay Oleshchuk; Ukrainian Naval Forces Commander Alexey Neizhpapa; and Commander of the Ukrainian 383rd Unmanned Aircraft Regiment, Sergey Burdenyuk. They are being charged in absentia with committing crimes under Part 2, Article 205 of the Russian Criminal Code ("Terrorist Act"). It was also established that the defendants had involved servicemen subordinate to them in the commission of these crimes," the press service stated.
Angola’s government has introduced a visa-free regime for Russian nationals, aiming to boost tourism and investment opportunities, news outlet Izvestia reported on Tuesday, citing Vladimir Tararov, Moscow’s ambassador to the African nation.
“On September 29, a presidential decree was signed on the abolition of tourist visas with a number of countries, including Russia. On the same day it came into force immediately after publication,” Tararov told Izvestia.
Last month, the Russian diplomat told the media that the Angolan government had proposed a bill that was awaiting parliamentary approval that would abolish visa requirements for citizens of G20 countries.
Germany and Lithuania are working on creating a road map for the deployment of a brigade of German soldiers to the Baltic state, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced in an interview with the news outlet ERR on Monday.
The minister announced several weeks ago that Berlin planned to send as many as 4,000 troops to Lithuania, which already houses around 1,500 German troops as part of a NATO battlegroup.
In the recent interview, he explained that the move was being done in order to show “solidarity and responsibility in the East Wing.”
Pistorius said that there was still a lot to do before the soldiers could be deployed, but stated that Germany and Lithuania expect to have a road map and a clear picture on how to proceed by the end of November or early December.
Over five hundred people gathered near Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate and Munich on Tuesday for an anti-government demonstration marking German Unity Day.
Rallying under the theme, 'War and Peace and the Consequences for German Unity', many protesters carried banners and placards advocating for peace in Ukraine while expressing opposition to government policies, including the re-militarization of Germany.
"I'm fed up with the government, come on, they're destroying us, they're killing us. We have to leave immediately," said a protester.
"I'm mainly concerned with crisis intervention and resolving this armed conflict,” added a second. “From a purely political point of view, Germany is right in the middle, and America is shamelessly taking advantage of that.”